Development of risk assessment methods for cloudburst damages

The project objective is to establish damage functions for cloudburst risk assessments based on expert knowledge. A more long-term objective is to support risk reduction and climate adaptation, with a focus on risk assessment methods for cloudburst damage.

C loudbursts and intensive rainfall causing pluvial and urban flooding have a significant (economic) damage potential and there is a demand for tools to support decisions on effective risk reduction measures. As a result of climate change, more frequent and more intense cloudburst events are expected. A key issue in risk management according to cloudbursts is therefore the analysis of causal relationships and the prediction of flood damage.

A basic requirement in the risk assessment process is a quantitative estimation of the damages that can be expected if no risk-reduction takes place. This estimation can be compared with the cost of an adaptation measure in a cost-benefit analysis. In the context of the development of quantitative damages models, a major challenge is the availability of observed flood damage data. In Sweden, there is a lack of systematically collected, open accessible flood damage data with high spatial resolution. One potential major source of damage data is Swedish home and building insurance policies. The insurance industry is collecting flood damage data on insured losses of property and content since several decades, but this industry has concerns to share flood loss data in order to protect the policyholders’ privacy and because of commercial confidentiality issues. After the implementation of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in May 2018, these concerns have increased.

Project focus:

  • The construction of synthetic models for cloudburst damage in Sweden. This type of models can be one important part in the development of nationally unified risk assessment methods for cloudburst, which will support decision-making in climate adaptation processes.
  • Models built, wherever possible, on open accessible data, e.g. from Statistics Sweden or the Swedish mapping, cadastral and land registration authority, etc. This approach will enable a broader use of the project results among different societal actors.
  • A deepened collaboration with the insurance industry by inclusion in Delphi groups. The insurance industry compiles knowledge and data about consequences of natural hazards and the changing climate, but much of the data are protected. We want to use co-production to open up for analysis of factors behind losses, and to improve prevention and mitigation of disasters.